Election Day Safety: What Experts Predict About Potential Violence?
Experts are keeping a close watch on the potential for Election Day violence, as online threats from extremist groups and conspiracy theorists have been on the rise.
Fueled by misinformation and speculation, these threats are creating an atmosphere of tension, with some experts saying a violent post-election response might be unavoidable, though how and when it could happen is still uncertain.
Many experts who specialize in tracking domestic extremism have been monitoring online discussions and activities, noting key differences from the 2020 election period. While similar concerns were present back then, 2024 looks different.
Key extremist groups, such as those involved in the January 6 events, are less organized and fragmented today.
For instance, former President Trump has not been seen organizing the kinds of large-scale protests he did in 2020, nor are right-wing groups regularly gathering for anti-mask or neo-Confederate rallies.
This shift in activity suggests that some of the conditions leading up to past violent events may not be as present in this election cycle.
Despite these changes, experts are cautious about potential violence following Election Day.
The concern now is not necessarily for a repeat of the January 6 Capitol riot but rather the risk of smaller incidents that could escalate quickly.
Law enforcement in Washington, D.C., is on high alert, making it unlikely that any coordinated group would attempt to overtake the Capitol as seen in 2021.
However, as some experts suggest, we could see tensions flare in local areas, especially if election results are delayed.
Tight elections and delayed vote counting in key states could prompt small groups of conspiracy theorists and their supporters to target local vote-counting centers, especially in swing states.
A situation like this could lead to scattered incidents across the country, where small groups feel encouraged to protest or disrupt election processes in their local communities.
Rather than one large event, experts warn this could become a series of isolated confrontations, creating an effect similar to “death by a thousand cuts.”
Aside from organized groups, there are also concerns about individuals who may act on their own.
Extremists on either side of the political spectrum could respond violently if they feel their side has lost unfairly.
Experts point out that some far-right extremists, in particular, have been led to believe that political opponents pose an almost existential threat, which could drive some to take extreme action if they feel their side is threatened.
Many of these individuals have been spurred on by Trump’s forceful rhetoric, which could lead them to believe in conspiracies about fraud or corruption in the election process. If Trump loses in a close race, these beliefs might prompt some to act out independently.
Similarly, some far-left agitators could respond with violence if Trump wins, seeing his victory as a threat to democracy.
Historically, far-left violence has not been as widespread or lethal as far-right violence, but there are indications that some anti-fascist and anarchist groups might consider protests or even violence in response to an unexpected election outcome.
One notable difference in the landscape of political violence today is that previously influential groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers are now significantly weakened.
The Proud Boys, once a visible presence, have largely faded from public view and operate mostly through anonymous online channels.
The Oath Keepers have also lost significant ground, particularly after some leaders were jailed for their involvement in the January 6 riots. Their absence from the political violence scene in 2024 changes the landscape, reducing the likelihood of large-scale organized incidents.
In short, while experts do not rule out the possibility of election-related violence, they are not expecting a repeat of January 6. They emphasize that any incidents may look very different this time around, with fewer large organized groups and more dispersed, isolated confrontations.
As experts continue to monitor extremist activity, they are adapting their approaches to anticipate new forms of threats that could arise in the coming days and weeks.