National Weather Service Forecasts Warmer-than-Average Winter for New York in 2024-25!
STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — Are we looking at a repeat of last year’s warm winter? The latest forecast from the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate.
The Prediction Center suggests that New York’s upcoming winter of 2024-25 could once again be milder than average.
Last winter, New York City saw only a few days of measurable snowfall, most of it occurring in mid-February 2024.
Overall, the temperatures were warmer than usual from the end of December 2023 through early March 2024. If the current predictions hold, this winter might not be much different.
The National Weather Service’s outlook for December, January, and February indicates that all parts of New York have a 40% to 50% chance of experiencing higher-than-average temperatures.
This forecast suggests that the entire state, from New York City to Buffalo, could have another mild winter.
Based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for Central Park, the average temperatures for these months are typically around 39.1°F in December, 33.7°F in January, and 35.9°F in February.
But this winter, we might see temperatures rising above these averages, particularly in southern regions.
Further south, like in Florida, the chances of warmer-than-average temperatures increase from 50% to 60%, showing a significant trend toward milder winters across the southern United States.
One key factor influencing this forecast is the expected return of La Niña before December. Unlike El Niño, La Niña is known for its cooling effect on Pacific waters, which can impact weather patterns globally.
During La Niña, enhanced trade winds push warm water toward Asia, resulting in cooler temperatures off the U.S. coast.
According to NOAA, La Niña conditions were already developing in March 2024, with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific expanding westward.
This phenomenon could push the jet stream northward, leading to drier conditions in the southern U.S. and more precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and parts of Canada.
The National Weather Service expects La Niña to persist through the winter of 2024-25. This could mean warmer temperatures in the South and colder-than-normal conditions in the North. As for snowfall, the seasonal precipitation forecast for New York shows a mixed bag.
Downstate areas like New York City have equal chances of seeing either more or less precipitation. In contrast, areas further north and west, such as central and eastern New York, have a 33% to 40% chance of experiencing more precipitation than usual. Erie County in western New York has a 40% to 50% likelihood of increased precipitation.
In contrast, the southern states are expected to have lower-than-average precipitation, aligning with the typical effects of La Niña.
The forecast doesn’t specifically predict how much snow might fall this winter, but it does offer clues. Interestingly, even slightly warmer temperatures can contribute to intense snowstorms.
Just like summer storms that thrive on warm conditions, winter storms can also become more powerful with above-average temperatures, provided they remain below freezing.
This means that even if temperatures are warmer than usual, they could still support significant snowfall events.
The moisture stored in the atmosphere could lead to heavy precipitation, resulting in strong snowstorms when the conditions are just right.
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So, while it might feel like another mild winter is on its way, there’s still a chance for some surprising weather events. New Yorkers should stay prepared for anything, as the changing climate patterns continue to make each winter season unique.