Breaking: HarrisX Poll Reveals Key Trends for Trump vs. Harris Showdown
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll, which came out late Monday, just before Election Day.
The poll shows Harris with a very slight lead, 49% to Trump’s 48%, among the 4,520 registered voters surveyed. About 3% of respondents said they would go with a third-party candidate.
When the poll narrowed the options to only Harris and Trump, Harris’ lead went up slightly, showing a 49%-47% advantage, with 4% of voters still undecided.
The poll, conducted online from October 30 to November 1, has a margin of error of ±1%, meaning the results are very close and could go either way.
Among those who already cast their votes, Harris leads with a larger margin of 56% to Trump’s 40%.
For the voters surveyed, “price increases and inflation” emerged as the top issue, with 36% naming it as their biggest concern.
Following that, immigration and the economy were also major topics, with 32% and 31% of respondents respectively, identifying these as their main concerns.
Abortion was another significant issue, with 16% of voters saying it’s a top priority for them.
According to Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, who spoke with Forbes, tomorrow’s voter turnout will be critical, particularly for Trump.
Nesho pointed out that Trump historically outperformed polls in both 2016 and 2020, largely by motivating voters who don’t always participate and by swaying undecided voters at the last minute.
Polls measure public opinion but have some limitations. The margin of error indicates how closely the survey results reflect the views of the entire population.
If one candidate’s lead is within the margin of error, as it is in this case, it’s often called a “statistical tie.”
According to the Pew Research Center, since 2016 and 2020, many pollsters have adjusted their methods due to underestimating Trump’s support in those years.